滑動雙權(quán)重平均訂正在福建省氣溫預(yù)報中的應(yīng)用

doi:10.12306/2023jms.0003

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滑動雙權(quán)重平均訂正在福建省氣溫預(yù)報中的應(yīng)用
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                        10.12306/2023jms.0003
                    
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中圖分類號:P457.3
基金項目:國家自然科學(xué)基金資助項目(U2242212)

Application of bi-weight moving mean method in temperature forecast of Fujian Province

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為提高福建省智能網(wǎng)格預(yù)報氣溫產(chǎn)品的精度,選取2019年EC_MOS和FZEC_MOS的整點氣溫、24 h最高氣溫、24 h最低氣溫數(shù)據(jù)與CLDAS (CMA Land Data Assimilation System)格點融合數(shù)據(jù),進(jìn)行誤差分析并使用滑動雙權(quán)重平均訂正進(jìn)行訂正研究。結(jié)果表明:(1) EC_MOS和FZEC_MOS具有低海拔地區(qū)偏低,高海拔地區(qū)偏高的系統(tǒng)性偏差,夏季預(yù)報精度優(yōu)于冬季,且24 h最低氣溫預(yù)報的精度最高;(2)經(jīng)過滑動雙權(quán)重平均訂正,各產(chǎn)品預(yù)報精度得到提高,整體預(yù)報準(zhǔn)確率均提升約10%,平均絕對誤差和均方根誤差均降低0.5~1℃;(3) FZEC_MOS格點預(yù)報產(chǎn)品雖然具有較高的空間分辨率,但是其預(yù)報準(zhǔn)確率比EC_MOS站點產(chǎn)品的低。通過訂正,可以使得EC_MOS和FZEZ_MOS的氣溫預(yù)報精度達(dá)到相似水平;(4)滾動訂正可以有效降低剩余有效預(yù)報時效數(shù)據(jù)的預(yù)報誤差,不斷提高預(yù)報精度。

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In order to improve the forecast accuracy of Fujian intelligent grid forecasting products,the hourly temperature, 24 h maximum temperature and 24 h minimum temperature data of EC_MOS and FZEC_MOS in 2019 were selected for systematic error analysis and revised research by using bi-weight moving mean method,based on temperature products from CLDAS.Results show that: (1) EC_MOS and FZEC_MOS have systematic deviations that are lower in low-altitude areas and higher in high-altitude areas. The forecast accuracy in summer is better than that in winter, and the accuracy of 24 h minimum temperature forecast is the highest. (2) After correction,the forecast accuracy of each product has been improved. On average, the prediction accuracy was increased by 10%, and MAE and RMSE were reduced by 0.5-1℃.(3)Although the FZEC_MOS has higher spatial resolution, its prediction accuracy is lower than that of the EC_MOS. Through the correction, the temperature forecast accuracy of EC_MOS and FZEZ_MOS can reach a similar level. (4)Rolling correction can effectively reduce the forecast error of data for the remaining valid forecast period, and continuously improve the forecast accuracy.

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申世凱,鮑艷松,潘寧,林青,李歡.滑動雙權(quán)重平均訂正在福建省氣溫預(yù)報中的應(yīng)用.氣象科學(xué),2025,45(2):229-239 SHEN Shikai, BAO Yansong, PAN Ning, LIN Qing, LI Huan. Application of bi-weight moving mean method in temperature forecast of Fujian Province. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2025,45(2):229-239

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收稿日期:2022-09-23
最后修改日期:2023-01-11
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在線發(fā)布日期: 2025-07-03
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