1971—2017年環(huán)太湖地區(qū)降水時空變化特征

doi:10.12306/2022jms.0093

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1971—2017年環(huán)太湖地區(qū)降水時空變化特征
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                        10.12306/2022jms.0093
                    
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中圖分類號:P426.61
基金項目:江蘇省自然資源發(fā)展專項資金(海洋科技創(chuàng)新)項目(JSZRHYKJ202114);江蘇省應(yīng)急管理科技項目(YJGL-YF-2020-16)

Temporal and spatial variation characteristics of precipitation from 1971 to 2017 around the Taihu Lake area

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摘要:

降水的非均勻分配是導(dǎo)致干旱和洪澇等災(zāi)害的主要原因,降水集中度(Precipitation Concentration Degree,PCD)和降水集中期(Precipitation Concentration Period,PCP)能夠定量描述降水非均勻性的時空分布特征。本文基于環(huán)太湖地區(qū)18個氣象站1971—2017年逐日降水量資料,選用降水量和降水日數(shù)、降水集中度和降水集中期指標,分析環(huán)太湖地區(qū)降水量時空分布特征及變化規(guī)律。結(jié)果表明:環(huán)太湖地區(qū)降水量充沛,近47 a來年降水量呈顯著增加、降水日數(shù)呈減少趨勢。春季降水量減少趨勢明顯,易發(fā)生春旱。夏、秋季降水日數(shù)明顯增加,加大了洪澇發(fā)生的風(fēng)險。降水集中度和集中期在時間上的變化呈緩慢遞增趨勢?？臻g分布上,PCD從東南向西北遞增,PCP呈由西南向東北推遲的趨勢,年際變化均為北增南減。年降水量與PCD和PCP均表現(xiàn)為正相關(guān)關(guān)系,即年降水量偏多(少)年,降水量年內(nèi)分布有集中(均勻)趨勢,PCP會呈現(xiàn)出推后(提前)的趨勢。環(huán)太湖地區(qū)地形對降水分布有顯著影響,高海拔地區(qū)降水日數(shù)和降水量偏多。

Abstract:

The non-uniform distribution of precipitation is the main cause of disasters such as drought and flood.Precipitation Concentration Period (PCP) and Precipitation Concentration Degree (PCD)can quantitatively describe the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of precipitation inhomogeneity. Based on the daily precipitation data of 18 meteorological stations from 1971 to 2017 around the Taihu Lake Basin,the spatial and temporal change characteristics of the annual precipitation,precipitation days,PCD and PCP were analyzed by methods of linear regression and coefficient of variation. Results show that annual precipitation was in a significant increasing trend in the past 47 years,and the annual precipitation days was in a significant decreasing trend. The decreasing trend of precipitation in spring is obvious,which is easy to lead to spring drought. The number of precipitation days increased significantly in summer and autumn,increasing the risk of flooding. PCD and PCP had trends of slowly increasing. The PCD increased from the southeast to the northwest. The PCP in the southwest area was earlier than that in the northeast area. Both PCD and PCP increased in the north region and decreased in the south region. It was found that there was a positive relationship between PCD,PCP and the amount of annual precipitation in space,that is to say,the more (less) annual precipitation was,the bigger (smaller) the PCD was,PCP presented a trend of later (earlier) accordingly. The topography had a significant effect on precipitation around the Taihu Lake Basin,it showed that the amount of annual precipitation and precipitation days were more in high-altitudeareas.

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白淑英,孫磊,史建橋,謝濤.1971—2017年環(huán)太湖地區(qū)降水時空變化特征.氣象科學(xué),2025,45(1):49-56 BAI Shuying, SUN Lei, SHI Jianqiao, XIE Tao. Temporal and spatial variation characteristics of precipitation from 1971 to 2017 around the Taihu Lake area. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2025,45(1):49-56

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收稿日期:2022-08-28
最后修改日期:2022-11-01
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在線發(fā)布日期: 2025-03-08
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