華南冬季極端低溫事件的統(tǒng)計(jì)建模及未來(lái)預(yù)估

doi:10.12306/2022jms.0008

首頁(yè) > 過(guò)刊瀏覽>2024年第44卷第1期 >46-58. DOI:10.12306/2022jms.0008

華南冬季極端低溫事件的統(tǒng)計(jì)建模及未來(lái)預(yù)估
DOI:
                        10.12306/2022jms.0008
                    
CSTR:
                        
                    
作者:
                        
                        
                    
作者單位:
作者簡(jiǎn)介:
通訊作者:
中圖分類號(hào):P423.34
基金項(xiàng)目:國(guó)家重點(diǎn)研發(fā)計(jì)劃資助項(xiàng)目(2017YFA0603804);國(guó)家自然科學(xué)基金資助項(xiàng)目(41905078);江蘇省自然科學(xué)基金資助項(xiàng)目(BK20191394)

Statistical modelling and projection of winter extreme cold spells over South China

Author:

Affiliation:

Fund Project:

摘要

圖/表

訪問(wèn)統(tǒng)計(jì)

參考文獻(xiàn)

相似文獻(xiàn)

引證文獻(xiàn)

資源附件

文章評(píng)論

摘要:

基于1961-2005年華南冬季逐日最低溫度觀測(cè)資料,以及參與CMIP5的IPSL-CM5A-MR、MPI-ESM-MR、CMCC-CMS 3個(gè)模式的歷史模擬和未來(lái)排放情景預(yù)估數(shù)據(jù),從過(guò)程角度定義和提取華南冬季極端低溫事件及其特征指標(biāo),并通過(guò)引入極值理論構(gòu)建極端低溫事件的概率分布模型(Cold Spell Model, CSM),刻畫其強(qiáng)度、頻數(shù)和持續(xù)時(shí)間特征分布;進(jìn)一步結(jié)合基于累計(jì)概率分布變換的偏差訂正方法降低模式模擬的偏差,探討了RCP4.5情景下全球升溫1.5℃和2℃時(shí)極端低溫事件的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)變化。研究表明:(1)CSM模型能夠較好地?cái)M合極端低溫特征概率分布,大部分臺(tái)站通過(guò)了K-S或卡方檢驗(yàn);(2)相對(duì)于觀測(cè),模式模擬極端低溫存在一定偏差,經(jīng)偏差訂正后,各站點(diǎn)BS評(píng)分接近于0,SS評(píng)分普遍提高到0.88左右;(3)全球增暖背景下,華南地區(qū)極端低溫呈現(xiàn)強(qiáng)度減弱、頻數(shù)減少、持續(xù)時(shí)間縮短的特征。全球增暖1.5、2.0℃背景下,華南大多數(shù)地區(qū)極端低溫事件平均強(qiáng)度減弱,頻次降低,持續(xù)時(shí)間變化具有明顯的空間差異;每年發(fā)生1次極端低溫事件的概率增加,但每年發(fā)生3、5次的概率減少;增暖1.5℃下極端低溫事件持續(xù)性特征變化不明顯。但增暖2℃下,華南大部分地區(qū)持續(xù)1 d的極端低溫事件更易發(fā)生,但更長(zhǎng)持續(xù)時(shí)間(3、5 d)的極端低溫事件發(fā)生的可能性顯著減少。

Abstract:

Based on observed and simulated daily minimum temperature from three GMCs,the extreme cold spell taking into account three characteristics including the intensity,frequency,and duration was defined.The extreme value theory was applied to establish the Cold Spell Model (CSM).The bias correction method applied on the raw simulation and the future projection of CSM over southern China under global warming of 1.5℃ and 2℃ in the RCP4.5 scenario was studied.Results show that:(1) the CSM model can well represent the extreme cold spells based on observation,and most stations pass the K-S and chi-square test.(2) Compared to observation,climate model simulation exhibits quite large errors.The biases-corrected simulations can reduce the biases with the BS scores of each station closing to 0,and the SS score increasing to about 0.88.(3) Under 1.5℃ and 2.0℃ global warming,the intensity and frequency of extreme cold spell will decrease in most regions in the southern China.The large spatial variability was found for the changes in the duration of cold spell.The probability of events occurring once a year will increase,while the events occurring every 3 and 5 years will decrease.The direction of cold spell exhibit little changes under 1.5℃ warming world,while the probability of events with longer duration (3 and 5 days per year) will decrease.

參考文獻(xiàn)

相似文獻(xiàn)

引證文獻(xiàn)

引用本文

姜?jiǎng)?李偉,朱連華,孫威,江志紅.華南冬季極端低溫事件的統(tǒng)計(jì)建模及未來(lái)預(yù)估.氣象科學(xué),2024,44(1):46-58 JIANG Sheng, LI Wei, ZHU Lianhua, SUN Wei, JIANG Zhihong. Statistical modelling and projection of winter extreme cold spells over South China. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2024,44(1):46-58

復(fù)制

文章指標(biāo)

點(diǎn)擊次數(shù):
下載次數(shù):
HTML閱讀次數(shù):
引用次數(shù):

歷史

收稿日期:2021-12-24
最后修改日期:2022-02-09
錄用日期:
在線發(fā)布日期: 2024-03-13
出版日期:

文章二維碼

您是第位訪問(wèn)者
氣象科學(xué) ® 2026 版權(quán)所有
技術(shù)支持：北京勤云科技發(fā)展有限公司

抽查舔水白紧大视频,冲喜娘子超甜哒激情五月,亚洲黄色图片偷拍网站,亚洲三级黄片免费播放,91在线观看喷潮红桃,日韩精品在线观看一区二区,久久久久久久久久久久黄色片子,日产精品99久久久久久久久,欧洲亚洲另类图片小说

引用本文

分享

相關(guān)視頻

文章指標(biāo)

歷史

文章二維碼

抽查舔水白紧大视频,冲喜娘子超甜哒 激情五月,亚洲黄色图片偷拍网站,亚洲三级黄片免费播放,91在线观看喷潮红桃,日韩精品在线观看一区二区,久久久久久久久久久久黄色片子,日产精品99久久久久久久久,欧洲亚洲另类图片小说

引用本文

分享

相關(guān)視頻

文章指標(biāo)

歷史

文章二維碼

抽查舔水白紧大视频,冲喜娘子超甜哒激情五月,亚洲黄色图片偷拍网站,亚洲三级黄片免费播放,91在线观看喷潮红桃,日韩精品在线观看一区二区,久久久久久久久久久久黄色片子,日产精品99久久久久久久久,欧洲亚洲另类图片小说