基于對(duì)流可分辨集合預(yù)報(bào)的阜寧龍卷概率預(yù)報(bào)研究

doi:10.12306/2022jms.0057

首頁 > 過刊瀏覽>2023年第43卷第4期 >438-450. DOI:10.12306/2022jms.0057

基于對(duì)流可分辨集合預(yù)報(bào)的阜寧龍卷概率預(yù)報(bào)研究
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                        10.12306/2022jms.0057
                    
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中圖分類號(hào):P456.1
基金項(xiàng)目:國家自然科學(xué)基金重點(diǎn)資助項(xiàng)目(41730965);江蘇省科技支撐計(jì)劃社會(huì)發(fā)展面上資助項(xiàng)目(BE2022851)

Probabilistic forecasting of Funing significant tornado based on convection-allowing ensembles

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本文針對(duì)2016年6月23日江蘇阜寧龍卷,設(shè)計(jì)了兩組對(duì)流可分辨尺度集合預(yù)報(bào):一組以ERA5再分析資料為初始和側(cè)邊界(CEFS_ERA5);另一組以NCEP GEFS為初始和側(cè)邊界(CEFS_GEFS),評(píng)估了兩組試驗(yàn)對(duì)此次龍卷的預(yù)報(bào)能力。結(jié)果顯示:兩組對(duì)流尺度集合預(yù)報(bào)均有約半數(shù)以上成員能夠再現(xiàn)龍卷超級(jí)單體的特征;2~5 km上升螺旋度(UH25)對(duì)本次龍卷超級(jí)單體有較好的預(yù)報(bào)指示意義。在上述分析的基礎(chǔ)上,考慮位置預(yù)報(bào)偏差,提出了一種基于UH25的鄰域龍卷概率預(yù)報(bào)產(chǎn)品,分析了龍卷概率預(yù)報(bào)技巧對(duì)關(guān)鍵參數(shù)鄰域半徑和UH25閾值的敏感性,CEFS_ERA5鄰域半徑取15個(gè)格點(diǎn),UH25閾值取250 m²·s^-2最優(yōu);而CEFS_GEFS鄰域半徑取15個(gè)格點(diǎn),UH25閾值取100 m²·s^-2最優(yōu)?？偟膩碚f,鄰域概率預(yù)報(bào)產(chǎn)品顯著提升了對(duì)此次龍卷概率預(yù)報(bào)水平。

Abstract:

For the significanttornado that occurred in Funing, Jiangsu Province on June 23, 2016, two Convection-allowing Ensemble Forecast Systems (CEFSs) were designed: one initialized from ERA5 reanalysis dataset (named CEFS_ERA5) and the other initialized from NCEP GEFS (named CEFS_GEFS). The predictability of these two systems was evaluated and the results show that more than half of the members of the two ensemble systems can reproduce the typical characteristics of the tornadic supercell; 2-5 km updraft helicity (UH25)has good skill in indicating tornadic supercell. Further,considering the position prediction deviation, a neighborhood tornado probabilistic forecasting product based on UH25 is proposed. The sensitivity of probabilistic forecastingto the key parameters of the product, such as neighborhood radius and UH25 threshold, is analyzed: CEFS_ ERA5 taking 15 grid spacing as the neighborhood radius and 250 m² ·s^-2 as the UH25 threshold has the best skill; CEFS_ GEFs taking 15 grid spacing as the neighborhood radius and 100 m²·s^-2 as the UH25 threshold has the best skill. In general, the neighborhood probabilistic forecasting products based on UH25 have significantly improved the skill in predicting this tornado.

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張晨悅,朱科鋒,薛明,孫正齊.基于對(duì)流可分辨集合預(yù)報(bào)的阜寧龍卷概率預(yù)報(bào)研究.氣象科學(xué),2023,43(4):438-450 ZHANG Chenyue, ZHU Kefeng, XUE Ming, SUN Zhengqi. Probabilistic forecasting of Funing significant tornado based on convection-allowing ensembles. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2023,43(4):438-450

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收稿日期:2022-04-20
最后修改日期:2022-05-18
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在線發(fā)布日期: 2024-01-23
出版日期: 2023-08-15

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