2020年江蘇省梅雨異常及暴雨日氣候特征分析

doi:10.12306/2023jms.0008

首頁 > 過刊瀏覽>2023年第43卷第3期 >345-357. DOI:10.12306/2023jms.0008

2020年江蘇省梅雨異常及暴雨日氣候特征分析
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                        10.12306/2023jms.0008
                    
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中圖分類號:P466
基金項目:江蘇省氣象局科研開放基金資助項目(KZ202201);江蘇省氣象局面上基金資助項目(KM202302);江蘇省氣象局青年基金資助項目(KQ202303);長江流域氣象開放基金資助項目(CJLY2022Y02)

Anomalous climatic characteristics during Meiyu period of 2020 and rainstorm days in recent ten years over Jiangsu Province

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利用ERA5再分析資料和江蘇省自動站降水數(shù)據(jù)等,結合江蘇地區(qū)入、出梅標準,分析了2020年江蘇省梅雨的時空分布異常特征,從梅雨特征量和大尺度環(huán)流因子等特征,揭示了梅雨異常的關鍵因子,并對暴雨日的大尺度環(huán)流特征進行合成分析,得到影響梅汛期暴雨的關鍵環(huán)流因子。結果表明:(1)2020年江蘇省梅雨時空分布顯著異常,入梅早、出梅晚,梅期達51 d,比常年平均多出一倍;沿江以南和沿淮東部地區(qū)梅雨總量為常年平均的2.5倍;梅汛期共15個暴雨日,強降水持續(xù)時間長,區(qū)域范圍大,整體雨強大。(2)梅雨特征量較好的反映了江蘇省梅雨的入出梅時間,當特征量顯著增強北抬對梅雨期的開始有較好指示意義,當特征量再次北抬,則梅雨季結束,各特征量均呈現(xiàn)一致的時間變化特征。特征量在梅雨期間的異常波動均與暴雨過程相對應,2020年梅雨特征量的多個異常高值中心反映了梅雨期暴雨過程頻繁、降水極端性強的特征。(3)梅雨期間大尺度環(huán)流形勢異常,西太平洋副熱帶高壓呈顯著正異常,強度偏強,脊點偏西,引導其西北側的西南暖濕氣流向江淮地區(qū)輸送,同時北方位勢高度偏低,東北冷渦強度略偏強,淺槽活動頻繁,攜弱冷空氣南下與暖濕氣流交匯,形成穩(wěn)定維持的梅雨鋒,是超強梅雨形成的主要環(huán)流因子(4)印度洋和孟加拉灣、西北太平洋是江蘇省梅汛期暴雨的重要水汽源地,通過強烈的西南風,將暖濕氣流向長江下游地區(qū)輸送,配合上空的強烈輻合抬升運動,導致該地區(qū)水汽積聚并穩(wěn)定維持,有利于出現(xiàn)梅汛期暴雨天氣。

Abstract:

By using the data from ERA5 dataset and daily precipitation data collected at weather stations in China, anomalous characteristics during Meiyu period of 2020 over Jiangsu Province were analyzed, revealing the possible factors for the ultra-strong Meiyu, and the largescale circulation characteristics of rainstorm days were analyzed to reveal the key circulation factors affecting the rainstorm in Meiyu season. Results indicate that: (1) the Meiyu period of 2020 lasts for 51 days. The amount of precipitation during Meiyu period is 2.5 times than the normal year, which is the first multiple value on record. There are 15 rainstorm days in the Meiyu period of 2020, and the average day of heavy precipitation is 3.3 days. (2) The characteristic quantity of meiyu better reflects the time of entering and exiting the meiyu in Jiangsu Province. When the characteristic quantity significantly increases to the north, it has a good indication for the beginning of Meiyu. When the characteristic quantity again rises to the north, the Meiyu season ends. Each characteristic quantity presents variations of consistent characteristics. The anomalous fluctuations of the characteristic quantities during the Meiyu are corresponding to the rainstorm process. The multiple anomalously high value centers of Meiyu characteristic quantities in 2020 reflect the characteristics of frequent rainstorm processes and extremes during the Meiyu period.(3) In 2020, West Pacific subtropical high is stronger than normal and westward, then the southwest warm and wet air flows along the northwest boundary of the subtropical high transport to the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. At the same time, the northern geopotential height is relatively lower, the northeast cold vortex is slightly stronger, and shallow troughs are active frequently. The weak cold air is carried to the south and converged with warm and humid air. Then a stable and maintained Meiyu front is formed, which is the main circulation factor for the formation of ultra-strong Meiyu.(4) The Indian Ocean-the Bay of Bengal and the Northwest Pacific are important sources of water vapor for rainstorms during the Meiyu season in Jiangsu Province. The warm and humid air is transported to the lower reaches of the Yangtze River via the strong southwest wind, combined with the strong convergence and lifting movement. The water vapor is accumulated in this area and maintain stably, which is conducive to the occurrence of rainstorm in meiyu season.

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陳蔚,金小霞,劉梅,楊華棟.2020年江蘇省梅雨異常及暴雨日氣候特征分析.氣象科學,2023,43(3):345-357 CHEN Wei, JIN Xiaoxia, LIU Mei, YANG Huadong. Anomalous climatic characteristics during Meiyu period of 2020 and rainstorm days in recent ten years over Jiangsu Province. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2023,43(3):345-357

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收稿日期:2022-08-30
最后修改日期:2023-02-08
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在線發(fā)布日期: 2023-07-27
出版日期: 2023-06-15

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