氣候變化背景下寧波市茶葉早春霜凍災(zāi)害風(fēng)險評估

doi:10.12306/2022jms.0036

首頁 > 過刊瀏覽>2023年第43卷第2期 >254-261. DOI:10.12306/2022jms.0036

氣候變化背景下寧波市茶葉早春霜凍災(zāi)害風(fēng)險評估
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                        10.12306/2022jms.0036
                    
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中圖分類號:S166;S571.1
基金項目:浙江省重點研發(fā)計劃項目（2021C02036）；國家重點研發(fā)計劃項目（2019YFD1002203）；浙江省氣象局重點項目（2019ZD06）

Estimation of early-spring frost damage for tea plants in Ningbo under the background of climate change

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基于自然災(zāi)害風(fēng)險理論，利用1971—2020年寧波市127個氣象站氣象觀測資料和茶葉生產(chǎn)相關(guān)資料，分析了寧波市茶葉早春霜凍空間分布規(guī)律，并通過層次分析（Analytic Hierarchy Process，AHP）和專家經(jīng)驗相結(jié)合的方法，構(gòu)建了寧波市茶葉早春霜凍風(fēng)險因子集，通過加權(quán)指數(shù)求和的方法建立了寧波市茶葉早春霜凍風(fēng)險模型，對早春霜凍災(zāi)害風(fēng)險進行了綜合和分年代的評估。結(jié)果表明，寧波市茶葉早春霜凍出現(xiàn)的年平均天數(shù)分布總體呈現(xiàn)西低東高的特征，霜凍年平均天數(shù)的范圍在0.23~21.43 d；寧波市茶葉早春霜凍高風(fēng)險區(qū)主要集中在余姚南部的四明山區(qū)域、寧海西部和寧海東北部的茶山區(qū)域，低風(fēng)險區(qū)主要分布于寧波東部沿海地區(qū)；20世紀70—90年代寧波市茶葉早春霜凍低風(fēng)險和較低風(fēng)險區(qū)域基本呈增長趨勢，中風(fēng)險和較高風(fēng)險區(qū)域呈減少趨勢，高風(fēng)險區(qū)域80年代最多、90年代次之、70年代最少，21世紀00—10年代，寧波市茶葉早春霜凍低風(fēng)險和中風(fēng)險區(qū)域呈減少趨勢，較低風(fēng)險、較高風(fēng)險和高風(fēng)險區(qū)域呈增長趨勢。

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Using the observational data of 127 meteorological stations in Ningbo from 1971 to 2020 and related data of tea production, this study analyzed the spatial distribution of early-spring frost damage on tea plants in Ningbo. Based on natural disaster risk theory, the early-spring frost risk factor set of tea plants in Ningbo was build up through the AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process) and Expert Scoring method. By using the method of weighted index summation, we established the early-spring frost risk model, and this model was used to comprehensively assess the early-spring frost risk by years. The results showed that the annual average number of days of early-spring frost ranged from 0.23 to 21.43 days, and the distribution was characterized by low in the west and high in the east. The high-risk areas were mainly concentrated around the Siming Mountain in the south of Yuyao, the west of Ninghai and Chashan area in the northeast of Ninghai. The low-risk areas were mainly distributed in the eastern coastal area of Ningbo. From the 1970s to the 1990s, the area of low-risk and lower-risk areas basically showed an increasing trend, while the area of medium-risk and higher-risk areas showed a decreasing trend. The high-risk areas were the most in 1980s, followed by the 1990s and the least in the 1970s. The area of low-risk and medium-risk areas showed a decreasing trend, while the area of lower-risk, higher-risk and high-risk areas showed an increasing trend from the 2000s to 2010s.

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蔡仕博,江曉東,李時睿,朱敬宜,夏靜雯,金志鳳.氣候變化背景下寧波市茶葉早春霜凍災(zāi)害風(fēng)險評估.氣象科學(xué),2023,43(2):254-261 CAI Shibo, JIANG Xiaodong, LI Shirui, ZHU Jingyi, XIA Jingwen, JIN Zhifeng. Estimation of early-spring frost damage for tea plants in Ningbo under the background of climate change. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2023,43(2):254-261

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收稿日期:2022-03-07
最后修改日期:2022-03-11
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在線發(fā)布日期: 2023-05-20
出版日期: 2023-04-15

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