江蘇區(qū)域性天氣氣候變化對常見疾病發(fā)生的可能影響

doi:10.12306/2022jms.0061

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江蘇區(qū)域性天氣氣候變化對常見疾病發(fā)生的可能影響
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                        10.12306/2022jms.0061
                    
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中圖分類號:P467
基金項目:國家自然科學(xué)基金資助項目(41475062)

Possible impacts of regional weather and climate changes on the occurrence of common diseases

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摘要:

基于2010—2019年江蘇省兩所具有區(qū)域代表性的醫(yī)院較為完整的10 a常見疾病住院病例數(shù)據(jù)、區(qū)域同期氣象資料,從不同時間尺度分析了氣象要素與疾病發(fā)病的可能關(guān)系,探討了氣象條件和氣候變化背景下主要疾病病例數(shù)的變化特征。結(jié)果表明:兒科肺炎、慢性阻塞性肺病等呼吸系統(tǒng)疾病具有明顯的季節(jié)變化特征,其對氣溫等氣象要素有較強(qiáng)的敏感性,而寒潮等天氣過程對此類疾病有誘發(fā)作用。作為年際氣候變化關(guān)鍵信號的ENSO模態(tài),可以通過調(diào)節(jié)不同地區(qū)的天氣頻率,間接對疾病發(fā)生產(chǎn)生影響。根據(jù)天氣變化與疾病發(fā)病機(jī)理的關(guān)系和氣候模式模擬預(yù)估的未來氣候變化情景,到本世紀(jì)末的氣候背景可能有利于減少肺炎和慢性阻塞性肺病的發(fā)病率,但也需注意天氣尺度氣溫變率加劇造成相關(guān)疾病的多發(fā)。

Abstract:

Based on common diseases hospitalized cases data from two representative regional hospitals in Jiangsu Province in 2010-2019 and meteorological data during the same period, the potential relationships between meteorological factors and incidence of disease were analyzed under the different background of meteorological conditions and climate change for the different time scales. Results show that respiratory diseases such as pediatric pneumonia and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease have obvious seasonal variation characteristics, which have a strong sensitivity to meteorological elements such as temperature. Weather processes such as cold waves have an inducing effect on such diseases. As key signals of inter-annual climate change, ENSO modes can indirectly affect disease occurrence by regulating weather frequencies in different regions. Based on the relationship between weather changes and disease pathogenesis, the incidence of pneumonia and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease will reduce according to the weather model. But it is also necessary to pay attention to the increase in temperature variability to cause the recurrence of related diseases.

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石天潤,何川,伏兵,簡黎明,陳星.江蘇區(qū)域性天氣氣候變化對常見疾病發(fā)生的可能影響.氣象科學(xué),2023,43(1):91-100 SHI Tianrun, HE Chuan, FU Bing, JIAN Liming, CHEN Xing. Possible impacts of regional weather and climate changes on the occurrence of common diseases. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2023,43(1):91-100

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收稿日期:2022-05-18
最后修改日期:2022-05-20
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在線發(fā)布日期: 2023-05-15
出版日期: 2023-02-15

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