5種干旱指數(shù)在西藏高原地區(qū)的適用性評(píng)估

doi:10.12306/2021jms.0005

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5種干旱指數(shù)在西藏高原地區(qū)的適用性評(píng)估
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                        10.12306/2021jms.0005
                    
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中圖分類號(hào):S423
基金項(xiàng)目:西藏自治區(qū)自然基金資助項(xiàng)目(XZ202201ZR0001G; XZ2019ZRG-150);西藏自治區(qū)氣象局中央財(cái)政資金"三農(nóng)"服務(wù)專項(xiàng)

Applicability evaluation of five drought indices in the Tibetan Plateau

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為了解不同干旱指標(biāo)在西藏高原地區(qū)的適用性,本文通過利用Pa、MI、SPI、CI和FAO P-M干旱指數(shù)對(duì)西藏高原月尺度旱情等級(jí)進(jìn)行評(píng)估,分析了各指標(biāo)在描述旱情時(shí)的異同,并統(tǒng)計(jì)出各種指數(shù)的一致性及等級(jí)差異。結(jié)果表明:近20 a干旱過程中,MI、FAO P-M指數(shù)未監(jiān)測出輕旱等級(jí),而對(duì)于中旱、重旱等級(jí),FAO P-M指數(shù)表現(xiàn)較好。從空間分布來看,FAO P-M指數(shù)在各個(gè)地區(qū)表現(xiàn)較好。從時(shí)間分布來看,FAO P-M指數(shù)在不同干旱過程期間,描述的干旱強(qiáng)度和中心位置與實(shí)際情況更接近;其次是Pa指數(shù),其他指數(shù)綜合表現(xiàn)相對(duì)較差。5種干旱指數(shù)在衡量西藏地區(qū)干旱程度上的一致性并不好;從兩兩指數(shù)之間反映干旱程度上出現(xiàn)一致性頻次上看出,Pa-FAO P-M指數(shù)出現(xiàn)的次數(shù)最多,其次是Pa-SPI-CI指數(shù)的出現(xiàn)次數(shù),MI-CI指數(shù)的出現(xiàn)次數(shù)最少。通過差異性分析得出,全區(qū)干旱指數(shù)不一致率平均大于20%,阿里地區(qū)和林芝地區(qū)的干旱指數(shù)整體不一致率最高,拉薩地區(qū)的干旱指數(shù)整體不一致率最低。

Abstract:

In order to understand the applicability of different drought indexes in the Tibetan Plateau (TP), Pa, MI, SPI, CI and the FAO P-M drought index were used to evaluate the monthly drought level in TP. The similarities and differences of each indicator in describing the drought were analyzed, and the consistency and grade differences of various indicators were calculated. Results show that MI and FAO P-M index did not monitor the grade of light drought in the past 20 years, but the FAO P-M index shows better performance in the grade of medium drought and heavy drought. From the perspective of spatial distribution, FAO P-M index performs well in all regions. From the perspective of time distribution, FAO P-M index was closer to the actual situation in describing drought intensity and central location during different drought processes, followed by Pa index, and other indexes has relatively poor comprehensive performance. The five drought indexes were not consistent in measuring the degree of drought in TP. As can be seen from the consistent frequency of reflecting drought degree between two indexes, PA-FAO P-M appeared the most, followed by PA-SPI-CI, and MI-CI appeared the least. Based on the difference analysis, it was concluded that the overall inconsistency rate of drought index in the whole region was more than 20% on average. The overall inconsistency rate of drought index in Ali region and Nyingchi region was the highest and that in Lhasa was the lowest.

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高佳佳,石磊,巴桑,平措桑旦,次白,索朗旺堆.5種干旱指數(shù)在西藏高原地區(qū)的適用性評(píng)估.氣象科學(xué),2023,43(1):80-90 GAO Jiajia, SHI Lei, BA Sang, PING Cuosangdan, CI Bai, SUO Langwangdui. Applicability evaluation of five drought indices in the Tibetan Plateau. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2023,43(1):80-90

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收稿日期:2020-05-29
最后修改日期:2020-12-22
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在線發(fā)布日期: 2023-05-15
出版日期: 2023-02-15

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