CRA資料對(duì)一次江淮暴雨過程模擬效果的評(píng)估

doi:10.12306/2022jms.0076

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CRA資料對(duì)一次江淮暴雨過程模擬效果的評(píng)估
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                        10.12306/2022jms.0076
                    
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中圖分類號(hào):P456.7
基金項(xiàng)目:國家自然科學(xué)基金資助項(xiàng)目(42192553;418052071);南京信息工程大學(xué)人才啟動(dòng)項(xiàng)目(2017r058)

Assessment of CRA data on a Jianghuai rain storm simulation

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利用中尺度模式WRF v4.1,分別以中國第一代全球大氣/陸面再分析產(chǎn)品CRA、歐洲ECMWF的ERA5和美國NCEP的FNL作為初始場,對(duì)2013年7月4—6日江淮地區(qū)一次持續(xù)性暴雨過程進(jìn)行了模擬試驗(yàn)。分析可知,此次暴雨過程是在東北冷渦、江淮切變線和西南急流 3個(gè)影響系統(tǒng)的共同作用下,高低空冷暖空氣形成對(duì)峙而導(dǎo)致的。與實(shí)況資料相比,3組試驗(yàn)均能夠模擬出此次暴雨過程的主要環(huán)流形勢(shì),以及水汽、能量和動(dòng)力條件。但3組試驗(yàn)的切變線和低空西南急流均較為偏南,強(qiáng)度較強(qiáng),使得模擬的主要降水中心較實(shí)況位置更偏南,降水量級(jí)更大。其中CRA試驗(yàn)對(duì)安徽南部的水汽和垂直運(yùn)動(dòng)模擬更好,在該地區(qū)產(chǎn)生的降水也與實(shí)況更接近。而FNL試驗(yàn)對(duì)水汽條件和動(dòng)力抬升條件模擬較弱,導(dǎo)致其模擬的降水明顯偏小。整體而言,針對(duì)此次降水過程,ERA5模擬效果最好,CRA模擬效果接近ERA5,并且對(duì)大雨量級(jí)降水的TS(Threat Score)評(píng)分優(yōu)于ERA5。

Abstract:

Different initial condition supported by China's first generation of global atmosphere and land reanalysis products (CRA), the fifth generation of ECMWF (European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) atmospheric reanalysis (ERA5) and the Final Operational Global Analysis (FNL) of NCEP(National centers for environmental prediction) on a rainstorm from July 4 to 6, 2013 in the Jiang huai regions were studied with Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF). Results show that the rainstorm was caused by the confrontation of cold and warm air in high and low levels under the joint action of northeast cold vortex, Jianghuai shear line and southwest jet stream. Compared with the observation data, the three experiments simulated the main circulation situation of this rainstorm, as well as the water vapor, energy and dynamic conditions. However, the shear lines and the low-level southwest jet of the three experiments were all southerly and stronger, which caused southward precipitation center and stronger precipitation magnitude. The CRA experiment showed better simulation of water vapor and vertical motion in southern Anhui, and the precipitation produced in this area was also closer to the reality. However, the FNL experiment obtained worse simulation of water vapor and dynamic conditions, which resulted in significantly weaker precipitation. Overall, for this case, ERA5 got the best simulation, while CRA's results were close to ERA5, and its TS score of heavy rain was better than ERA5.

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楊春,馬怡軒,莊瀟然. CRA資料對(duì)一次江淮暴雨過程模擬效果的評(píng)估.氣象科學(xué),2023,43(1):59-68 YANG Chun, MA Yixuan, ZHUANG Xiaoran. Assessment of CRA data on a Jianghuai rain storm simulation. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2023,43(1):59-68

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收稿日期:2022-05-21
最后修改日期:2022-09-27
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在線發(fā)布日期: 2023-05-15
出版日期: 2023-02-15

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