江西省暖季重大短時(shí)強(qiáng)降水敏感性參數(shù)分析及概念模型

doi:10.12306/2020jms.0016

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江西省暖季重大短時(shí)強(qiáng)降水敏感性參數(shù)分析及概念模型
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                        10.12306/2020jms.0016
                    
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中圖分類號(hào):P459
基金項(xiàng)目:國(guó)家自然科學(xué)基金資助項(xiàng)目（41975001）；國(guó)家重點(diǎn)研發(fā)計(jì)劃資助項(xiàng)目（2017YFC1502501）

Analysis of conceptual models and sensitivity parameters of major flash heavy rain in Jiangxi warm season

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利用江西省2010—2016年5—9月1 597個(gè)觀測(cè)站逐小時(shí)降水資料，ERA Interim，Daily逐日4次0.125°×0.125°再分析資料以及南昌和贛州探空資料，篩選出84例重大短時(shí)強(qiáng)降水過(guò)程，并建立了5種重大短時(shí)強(qiáng)降水概念模型：冷鋒型、西南急流型、副高邊緣型、暖切型和臺(tái)風(fēng)型，各型分別占比29%、40%、11%、12%和8%。每例過(guò)程平均維持時(shí)間分別是4.9 h、5.6 h、4.4 h、5.5 h、6.7 h；平均降水強(qiáng)度為31 mm·h^-1、27 mm·h^-1、45 mm·h^-1、30 mm·h^-1、36 mm·h^-1。冷鋒型、西南急流型和暖切型基本出現(xiàn)在5—6月，副高邊緣型主要出現(xiàn)在7月，臺(tái)風(fēng)型在7—9月且多集中在8月。對(duì)于短時(shí)強(qiáng)降水的高頻區(qū)，冷鋒型、西南急流型和暖切型主要集中在鄱陽(yáng)湖平原處，副高邊緣型主要分布在武夷山西側(cè)，臺(tái)風(fēng)型主要集中在江西東北部。5種類型對(duì)應(yīng)的關(guān)鍵環(huán)境參數(shù)特征為：冷鋒型、副高邊緣型及臺(tái)風(fēng)型的CAPE平均在1 200 J·kg^-1，西南急流型和暖切型集中在500~1 200 J·kg^-1；CIN基本都在20~60 J·kg^-1；臺(tái)風(fēng)型的K指數(shù)偏高，超過(guò)38℃，其他四類達(dá)到32℃即可；S指數(shù)平均值都低于-1.1℃。T₇₀₀-T₅₀₀基本有75%的過(guò)程在13℃之上，T₈₅₀-T₅₀₀有75%過(guò)程達(dá)到23℃；冷鋒型與西南急流型的850 hPa假相當(dāng)位溫超過(guò)340 K即可，其他三型需達(dá)到345 K；暖云層厚度基本在4 000 m以上。地面露點(diǎn)西南急流型和暖切型最低為21℃，其次是冷鋒型，閾值為22℃，臺(tái)風(fēng)型閾值為24℃；大多數(shù)PW都在50 mm以上，平均為60 mm左右。

Abstract:

By using the hourly precipitation data of 1 597 stations in Jiangxi warm season from 2010 to 2016, ERA Interim, four times a day 0.125°×0.125° reanalysis data and the sounding data of Nanchang and Ganzhou, 84 cases of major flash heavy rain were selected, and five conceptual models of major flash heavy rain were established. They are cold front type, southwest jet type, the subtropical high type, warm shear type and typhoon type, and each type accounts for 29%, 40%, 11%, 12% and 8%. The average process maintenance time is 4.9 h, 5.6 h, 4.4 h, 5.5 h and 6.7 h; the average precipitation intensity is 31 mm·h^-1, 27 mm·h^-1, 45 mm·h^-1, 30 mm·h^-1 and 36 mm·h^-1. The cold front type, southwest jet type and warm shear type appear in May and June, the subtropical high type mainly occur in July, and the typhoon type occurs in July, August and September, but mainly concentrated in August. As for the high frequency area of flash heavy rain, cold front type, southwest jet type and warm shear type are mainly concentrated in the Poyang Lake Plain, the subtropical high type is mainly concentrated in the west side of Wuyi Mountain, and the typhoon type is mainly concentrated in the northeastern Jiangxi. The characteristics of environmental parameters are: the average CAPE of cold front type, subtropical high type and typhoon type is 1 200 J·kg^-1, and the southwest jet type and warm shear type are among 500 to 1 200 J·kg^-1. CIN is basically among 20 to 60 J·kg^-1. The K index of the typhoon type is higher than 38 ℃, and the other four categories reach to 32 ℃. The S index is basically less than -1.1 ℃. About 75% T₇₀₀-T₅₀₀ is above 13 ℃, and 75% T₈₅₀-T₅₀₀ is above 23 ℃. In regard to 850 hPa θ_se, the cold front type and southwest jet type greater than 340 K can be obtained, but the other three types need to be higher than 345 K. The height of warm clouds should be higher above 4 000 m. The lowest of the surface T_d southwest jet type and the warm shear type is 21 ℃, the second is the cold front type, the threshold is 22 ℃, and the typhoon type is 24 ℃. Most of the PW is above 50 mm, and the average is about 60 mm.

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付超,諶蕓,單九生,朱克云.江西省暖季重大短時(shí)強(qiáng)降水敏感性參數(shù)分析及概念模型.氣象科學(xué),2021,41(1):39-49 FU Chao, CHEN Yun, SHAN Jiusheng, ZHU Keyun. Analysis of conceptual models and sensitivity parameters of major flash heavy rain in Jiangxi warm season. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2021,41(1):39-49

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收稿日期:2019-07-25
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