春季北大西洋三極型海溫異常變化及其與NAO和ENSO的聯(lián)系

doi:10.3969/2018jms.0105

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春季北大西洋三極型海溫異常變化及其與NAO和ENSO的聯(lián)系
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                        10.3969/2018jms.0105
                    
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基金項(xiàng)目:國(guó)家自然科學(xué)基金資助項(xiàng)目（41575102；41575085）；國(guó)家重點(diǎn)研發(fā)計(jì)劃項(xiàng)目（2017YFA0603804）；江蘇省高等學(xué)校自然科學(xué)研究項(xiàng)目（18KJB170008）

Variation characteristics of North Atlantic tri-polar sea surface temperature in spring and its relationship with NAO and ENSO

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利用1951-2016年HadISST逐月海表溫度（Sea Surface Temperature，SST）資料，NCEP/NCAR再分析資料以及1958-2016年美國(guó)伍茲霍爾海洋研究所（Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution，WHOI）提供的OAFlux數(shù)據(jù)集，運(yùn)用經(jīng)驗(yàn)正交函數(shù)分解（Empirical Orthogonal Function，EOF）和偏相關(guān)分析等統(tǒng)計(jì)方法，研究了春季北大西洋海溫異常的主要特征及其與春季NAO和前期冬季ENSO聯(lián)系。結(jié)果表明：春季北大西洋海溫異常EOF的第一模態(tài)是自北而南出現(xiàn)的三極結(jié)構(gòu)的海溫距平型，其方差貢獻(xiàn)率為35.7%。春季北大西洋三極型海溫異常的形成主要受到春季NAO主導(dǎo)作用，還受到前期冬季熱帶中東太平洋海溫異常的影響。消除前期冬季Niño3.4的影響后，春季北大西洋三極型海溫異常指數(shù)與同期北大西洋濤動(dòng)（North Atlantic Oscillation，NAO）指數(shù)的偏相關(guān)系數(shù)分別為0.50，通過(guò)了99%置信度水平的顯著性檢驗(yàn)。消除春季NAO的影響后，春季北大西洋三極型海溫異常指數(shù)與前期冬季Niño3.4指數(shù)的偏相關(guān)系數(shù)為-0.26，通過(guò)了95%信度水平的顯著性檢驗(yàn)。春季NAO正（負(fù)）位相引起的海表風(fēng)場(chǎng)和海表湍流熱通量的異常，進(jìn)而激發(fā)出正（負(fù)）位相的北大西洋三極型海溫異常。前期冬季ENSO事件可以引起春季大氣環(huán)流異常和熱帶外海溫異常，進(jìn)而調(diào)制春季NAO對(duì)北大西洋三極型海溫異常的影響。

Abstract:

Based on the data form the monthly Sea Surface Temperature (SST) data of HadISST from 1951 to 2016, NCEP/NCAR reanalysis and Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution(WHOI) form 1958-2016, and statistical methods such as Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) and partial correlation analysis, the main characteristics of the North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly (SSTA) in spring and their association with the spring NAO and previously winter ENSO are studied. The results show that the first mode of EOF in spring exhibits a meridional tri-polar pattern, which revealed 35.7% variance. The spring tri-polar pattern SSTA over the North Atlantic is mainly affected by the spring NAO and the central and eastern tropical Pacific SSTA in the previous winter. After eliminating the influence of the previous winter Niño3.4, the partial correlation coefficient between the North Atlantic Tri-pole(NAT) mode index and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index is 0.50, which passes the 99% confidence level significance test. After eliminating the effects of spring NAO, the partial correlation coefficient between spring NAT index and the previous winter Niño3.4 index is -0.26, which passes the 95% confidence level significance test. Associated with the sea surface wind and sea surface turbulent heat flux anomalies in North Atlantic, the positive(negative) NAO in spring leads to the positive (negative) NAT SSTA. The previous winter ENSO events can cause atmospheric circulation anomaly and extratropical SST anomaly in spring, which in turn modulate the influence of spring NAO on the North Atlantic tri-polar pattern SSTA in spring.

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李忠賢,于怡秋,鄧偉濤,曾剛,吳玲玲.春季北大西洋三極型海溫異常變化及其與NAO和ENSO的聯(lián)系.氣象科學(xué),2019,39(6):721-730 LI Zhongxian, YU Yiqiu, DENG Weitao, ZENG Gang, WU Lingling. Variation characteristics of North Atlantic tri-polar sea surface temperature in spring and its relationship with NAO and ENSO. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2019,39(6):721-730

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收稿日期:2018-10-18
最后修改日期:2018-12-10
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在線(xiàn)發(fā)布日期: 2020-01-07
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