全球變暖減緩背景下歐亞秋冬溫度變化特征和原因

doi:10.3969/2014jms.0023

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全球變暖減緩背景下歐亞秋冬溫度變化特征和原因
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                        10.3969/2014jms.0023
                    
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基金項目:國家重點基礎(chǔ)研究發(fā)展計劃(973計劃)項目(2013CB430202);江蘇高校優(yōu)勢學(xué)科建設(shè)工程資助項目(PAPD);長江學(xué)者和創(chuàng)新團隊發(fā)展計劃(PCSIRT);遼寧省氣象局重點科研項目;遼寧省交通專家型預(yù)報團隊

Temperature characteristics of Eurasia in autumn and winter and its causes under global warming mitigation

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采用氣候序列變化趨勢診斷和一元線性回歸等分析法,研究和討論了2000-2012年和1976-1999年兩種年代際背景下全球陸地不同區(qū)域的年平均地表溫度的變化特征。發(fā)現(xiàn)歐亞大陸中高緯度地區(qū)是對全球變暖減緩貢獻最大的區(qū)域。且該地區(qū)在2000年以來秋季年代際增溫,而冬季年代際降溫。從同期大氣環(huán)流的配置來看,在對流層低層,秋季西伯利亞高氣壓年代際減弱,而冬季西伯利亞高氣壓年代際增強。在對流層中高層,秋季從西歐至東北亞為"高-低-高"的高度場異常分布,緯向環(huán)流加強,經(jīng)向環(huán)流減弱,而冬季極地與貝加爾湖地區(qū)的高度場呈偶極型分布,東亞大槽加深,經(jīng)向環(huán)流加強。進一步研究發(fā)現(xiàn),超前一個季節(jié)的喀拉海附近的海冰與歐亞中高緯度秋冬兩季溫度的年代際變率有著密切的聯(lián)系。一方面,夏季(秋季)海冰減少影響秋季(冬季)中高緯度大氣環(huán)流;另一方面,夏季(秋季)海冰減少,使得秋季(冬季)從北極至中高緯度大陸的對流層低層水汽含量增加(減少),大氣逆輻射增強(減弱)導(dǎo)致秋季(冬季)增溫(降溫)。

Abstract:

By using climate sequence variation trend diagnosis and unitary linear regression methods, the variation characteristics of annual mean surface temperature in different areas under two decadal time scales: 2000-2012 and 1976-1999, were analyzed. Results show that the mid-high latitude of Eurasia is the region that contributes the largest to global warming mitigation, and the temperature in autumn and winter presented inverse variation trend since 2000, which showed interdecadal warming in autumn but cooling in winter. Judging from configuration of the corresponding atmospheric circulation, in lower troposphere, the intensity of Siberian High weakens interdecadally in autumn while enhances in winter. In mid-high troposphere, the geopotential height in autumn presents a "high-low-high" anomaly distribution from western Europe to Northeast Asia with strengthening zonal circulation and weakening meridional circulation, while in winter, the geopotential height presents a dipole pattern between the polar and Lake Baikal region with deepening East Asian trough and strengthening meridional circulation. Further study suggests that a close relation exists between the sea ice near Kara sea and the decadal variability of temperature in autumn and winter at mid-high latitudes of Eurasia. On one hand, the reducing sea ice in summer(autumn) influences the atmospheric circulation at mid-high altitudes in autumn(winter), on the other hand, the reducing sea ice in summer(autumn) causes the water vapor content of lower troposphere to increase(decrease) in autumn(winter) from arctic to the mid-high latitudes in Eurasia and the downward long-wave radiation to strengthen(weaken), which results in the warming(cooling) in autumn(winter).

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王迪,何金海,祁莉,欒健,蔡波.全球變暖減緩背景下歐亞秋冬溫度變化特征和原因.氣象科學(xué),2015,35(5):534-542 WANG Di, HE Jinhai, QI Li, LUAN Jian, CAI Bo. Temperature characteristics of Eurasia in autumn and winter and its causes under global warming mitigation. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2015,35(5):534-542

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收稿日期:2014-03-07
最后修改日期:2014-03-14
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在線發(fā)布日期: 2015-11-13
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