江淮入梅前后氣象因子變化特征及預報著眼點探析

doi:10.3969/2013jms.0002

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江淮入梅前后氣象因子變化特征及預報著眼點探析
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                        10.3969/2013jms.0002
                    
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基金項目:國家氣象局預報員專項（CMAYBY2011-017）

Variation features of meteorological factors about onset of Jianghuai Meiyu and its forecasting focus

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針對2010年江淮地區(qū)入梅日預報偏差情況，利用2010年6—7月高低空實況資料和NCEP再分析資料，分析了入梅前后濕度、經向風、地轉西風急流的變化特征，并結合1985—2005年21 a歷史平均狀況和近幾年的變化特征，分析了江淮地區(qū)入梅前后氣象因子變化的規(guī)律性、普遍性，豐富了江淮地區(qū)入梅預報著眼點。研究發(fā)現：有些年份地轉西風急流從30°N以南北跳到30~37.5°N區(qū)域，對江淮地區(qū)進入梅雨期有很好的預示作用，且其穩(wěn)定維持，有利于江淮梅雨期降水的持續(xù)。70%濕度區(qū)北跳到30°N的時間及持續(xù)時間對江淮地區(qū)入梅日的預報和梅雨期長度有著較好的指示作用。在30~35°N區(qū)域內v_{850 hPa}-v_{200 hPa}風速差值的突然增大和江淮地區(qū)入梅有著較好對應關系。這為梅雨的預報提供了新的思路和方法。

Abstract:

In order to examine the forecasting error of the onset of Jianghuai Meiyu, 2010, the variation features of humidity, meridional wind, geostrophic westerly jet stream at the high and low levels and NCEP reanalysis data from June to July in 2010 as well as 21-year average conditions during 1985-2005 and variations in recent years were studied to confirm the regularity and universality of variation features about meteorological factors before and after Jianghuai Meiyu, providing new approaches and focus for Meiyu forecasting in Jianghuai. The study found that during some years the jump of westerly jets from 30°N to 30-37.5°N is a significant starting signal of Meiyu in Jianghuai, and its stable maintenance helps sustain the rainfall of in Meiyu season. The time interval and persisting period for northward jump of 70% humidity region to 30°N are effective indexes for forecasting Meiyu onset and its length. In 30-35°N region, the sudden increase of wind differences (v_{850 hPa}-v_{200 hPa}) may correlate with the Meiyu onset in Jianghuai. These findings offer new ideas for Meiyu forecasting in Jianghuai.

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劉梅,韓桂榮,張備,胡洛林,孫泓川.江淮入梅前后氣象因子變化特征及預報著眼點探析.氣象科學,2014,34(2):222-228 LIU Mei, HAN Guirong, ZHANG Bei, HU Luolin, SUN Hongchuan. Variation features of meteorological factors about onset of Jianghuai Meiyu and its forecasting focus. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2014,34(2):222-228

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收稿日期:2012-05-21
最后修改日期:2013-01-09
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在線發(fā)布日期: 2014-05-07
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