WRF3.1微物理參數(shù)化方案對(duì)兩例暴雨的集合預(yù)報(bào)試驗(yàn)及可預(yù)報(bào)性分析

doi:10.3969/2012jms.0031

首頁(yè) > 過(guò)刊瀏覽>2012年第32卷第3期 >237-245. DOI:10.3969/2012jms.0031

WRF3.1微物理參數(shù)化方案對(duì)兩例暴雨的集合預(yù)報(bào)試驗(yàn)及可預(yù)報(bào)性分析
DOI:
                        10.3969/2012jms.0031
                    
CSTR:
                        
                    
作者:
                        
                        
                    
作者單位:
作者簡(jiǎn)介:
通訊作者:
中圖分類號(hào):
基金項(xiàng)目:江蘇省"六大人才高峰"培養(yǎng)對(duì)象(07-A-012);國(guó)家自然科學(xué)基金資助項(xiàng)目(40975037)

Ensemble simulation and predictability analysis on rainstorms via WRFV3.1 with different microphysical parameterization schemes

Author:

Affiliation:

Fund Project:

摘要

圖/表

訪問(wèn)統(tǒng)計(jì)

參考文獻(xiàn)

相似文獻(xiàn)

引證文獻(xiàn)

資源附件

文章評(píng)論

摘要:

采用WRFV3.1.1數(shù)值模式,選取模式中的10個(gè)微物理過(guò)程參數(shù)化方案構(gòu)造10個(gè)集合預(yù)報(bào)成員,分別對(duì)2008年6月9—10日江淮地區(qū)暴雨與2008年6月6—7日華南地區(qū)暴雨進(jìn)行集合預(yù)報(bào)試驗(yàn),并進(jìn)一步討論了這兩例暴雨的可預(yù)報(bào)性差異。結(jié)果表明:各參數(shù)化方案在暴雨的模擬中所表現(xiàn)出來(lái)的優(yōu)勢(shì)是相對(duì)的,但微物理過(guò)程集合預(yù)報(bào)在兩例暴雨中都取得穩(wěn)定且優(yōu)異的模擬效果;通過(guò)比較兩例暴雨的ETS(Equitable threat score)評(píng)分距平發(fā)現(xiàn),華南暴雨在各個(gè)量級(jí)上的ETS評(píng)分距平都大于江淮暴雨,且華南暴雨集合成員之間的ETS評(píng)分差別也較大;大多數(shù)集合成員的模式誤差在初始12 h增長(zhǎng)最快,其后將減慢或者降低。對(duì)各成員的均方根誤差(σ)距平分析表明,華南暴雨的σ距平增長(zhǎng)相對(duì)較快且成員之間差別較大。因此從模式誤差增長(zhǎng)的角度來(lái)說(shuō),華南暴雨的可預(yù)報(bào)性低于江淮暴雨。

Abstract:

In order to study the effect of different microphysical parameterization schemes in WRF model on rainstorms simulation and their predictability, 10 ensemble members were constructed by choosing different microphysical parameterization schemes from WRFV3.1.1 and two experiments of ensemble forecast were conducted for two precipitation cases, the case from 9-10 June of 2008 in the area of Yangtze-Huaihe River and the other one from 6-7 June of 2008 in south China. Results show that, as regards the rainstorm simulation, the descriptive ability of the different microphysical parameterization schemes was different and the ensemble forecast achieved success in simulation of the two cases. The error of model became large in the first 12 h and then it slowed down or reduced for most of ensemble members. By comparing ETS and RMSE of two cases, it is found that both the parameters in the case occurred in south China became higher than that in Yangtze-Huaihe River Basin during different rain intensity, and that the differences between the parameters obtained from different ensemble members became more distinct in the south China case than that in Yangtze-Huaihe River Basin case. In a word, the predictability of model on rainstorms simulation in south China is worse than that in the area of Yangtze-Huaihe River in view of model’s error growth.

參考文獻(xiàn)

相似文獻(xiàn)

引證文獻(xiàn)

引用本文

陳茂欽,徐海明,劉蕾,丁治英. WRF3.1微物理參數(shù)化方案對(duì)兩例暴雨的集合預(yù)報(bào)試驗(yàn)及可預(yù)報(bào)性分析.氣象科學(xué),2012,32(3):237-245 CHEN Maoqin, XU Haiming, LIU Lei, DING Zhiying. Ensemble simulation and predictability analysis on rainstorms via WRFV3.1 with different microphysical parameterization schemes. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2012,32(3):237-245

復(fù)制

文章指標(biāo)

點(diǎn)擊次數(shù):
下載次數(shù):
HTML閱讀次數(shù):
引用次數(shù):

歷史

收稿日期:2011-01-20
最后修改日期:2011-04-27
錄用日期:
在線發(fā)布日期: 2012-06-15
出版日期:

文章二維碼

您是第位訪問(wèn)者
氣象科學(xué) ® 2026 版權(quán)所有
技術(shù)支持：北京勤云科技發(fā)展有限公司

抽查舔水白紧大视频,冲喜娘子超甜哒激情五月,亚洲黄色图片偷拍网站,亚洲三级黄片免费播放,91在线观看喷潮红桃,日韩精品在线观看一区二区,久久久久久久久久久久黄色片子,日产精品99久久久久久久久,欧洲亚洲另类图片小说

引用本文

分享

相關(guān)視頻

文章指標(biāo)

歷史

文章二維碼

抽查舔水白紧大视频,冲喜娘子超甜哒 激情五月,亚洲黄色图片偷拍网站,亚洲三级黄片免费播放,91在线观看喷潮红桃,日韩精品在线观看一区二区,久久久久久久久久久久黄色片子,日产精品99久久久久久久久,欧洲亚洲另类图片小说

引用本文

分享

相關(guān)視頻

文章指標(biāo)

歷史

文章二維碼

抽查舔水白紧大视频,冲喜娘子超甜哒激情五月,亚洲黄色图片偷拍网站,亚洲三级黄片免费播放,91在线观看喷潮红桃,日韩精品在线观看一区二区,久久久久久久久久久久黄色片子,日产精品99久久久久久久久,欧洲亚洲另类图片小说