臺(tái)風(fēng)路徑集合預(yù)報(bào)試驗(yàn)

doi:10.3969/2012jms.0024

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臺(tái)風(fēng)路徑集合預(yù)報(bào)試驗(yàn)
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                        10.3969/2012jms.0024
                    
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基金項(xiàng)目:國家自然科學(xué)基金資助項(xiàng)目(40975031)

The study on ensemble prediction of typhoon track

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摘要:

基于T63L9模式,利用BGM法進(jìn)行了臺(tái)風(fēng)路徑的集合預(yù)報(bào)試驗(yàn),并對(duì)集合預(yù)報(bào)中的一個(gè)關(guān)鍵技術(shù)—繁殖長(zhǎng)度進(jìn)行了研究。結(jié)果表明:相對(duì)于控制預(yù)報(bào),利用增長(zhǎng)模繁殖法制作的集合預(yù)報(bào)對(duì)臺(tái)風(fēng)路徑預(yù)報(bào)的技巧水平有了很大提高。集合預(yù)報(bào)中采用不同的繁殖長(zhǎng)度對(duì)臺(tái)風(fēng)路徑預(yù)報(bào)效果有一定影響。繁殖長(zhǎng)度取2 d和3 d集合預(yù)報(bào)效果相對(duì)于控制預(yù)報(bào)都有很大提高。繁殖長(zhǎng)度取為2 d時(shí),集合離散度較小,取為3 d時(shí)較合理,取為4 d時(shí),離散度較大。對(duì)臺(tái)風(fēng)路徑的預(yù)報(bào)采用集合選擇平均后,繁殖2 d和繁殖3 d的集合預(yù)報(bào)系統(tǒng)的預(yù)報(bào)效果都優(yōu)于控制預(yù)報(bào)。從綜合集合預(yù)報(bào)效果分析,繁殖長(zhǎng)度取為3 d更合適。當(dāng)集合預(yù)報(bào)中繁殖長(zhǎng)度取為3 d時(shí),在預(yù)報(bào)的前3天,臺(tái)風(fēng)路徑集合預(yù)報(bào)誤差基本維持在100 km,第4 天誤差也只接近300 km。相對(duì)于控制預(yù)報(bào),集合預(yù)報(bào)的改進(jìn)率在預(yù)報(bào)的2~4 d基本超過了60%,甚至可達(dá)到70%。

Abstract:

By using T63L9 model and breeding mode growth method(BGM),the ensemble prediction of typhoon track has been carried out, and the research of the breeding length which is the key technology of BGM has been done. The result shows that the ensemble prediction by using BGM is able to improve the skill of typhoon track prediction in contrast with the control prediction. The different breeding length in ensemble prediction has some influence on the prediction effect of typhoon track. When the breeding length is selected as 2 or 3 d, the effect of ensemble prediction is better than control forecast. When the breeding length is 3 d, the measure of ensemble spread is reasonable. But when the breeding length is selected as 4 d, the measure of ensemble spread is too small. In a word, the prediction effect of breeding for 2 d or 3 d is better than control forcast. The ensemble prediction breeding for 3 d is more reasonable. When the breeding length is selected as 3 d, the typhoon track error of ensemble prediction is about 100 km in the first 3 d, which is only close to 300km in the fourth day.Compared with the control forecast, the correction of ensemble prediction can reach over 60%,and even 70% in the 2-4 d.

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王秋良,劉家峻,張立鳳.臺(tái)風(fēng)路徑集合預(yù)報(bào)試驗(yàn).氣象科學(xué),2012,32(2):137-144 WANG Qiuliang, LIU Jiajun, ZHANG Lifeng. The study on ensemble prediction of typhoon track. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2012,32(2):137-144

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收稿日期:2010-12-17
最后修改日期:2011-03-10
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在線發(fā)布日期: 2012-05-03
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