WRF模式在南京數(shù)值天氣預報中的應(yīng)用

doi:P412

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WRF模式在南京數(shù)值天氣預報中的應(yīng)用
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                        P412
                    
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中圖分類號:P412
基金項目:江蘇省科技廳社會發(fā)展項目（BS2007088）

The application of WRF model in the weather forecast of Nanjing

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摘要:

利用最新版本的WRFV3.1進行了南京地區(qū)的高分辨率的數(shù)值天氣預報，對預報結(jié)果進行了細致的評估，結(jié)果表明：模式很好的預報出了溫度、相對濕度及風場的逐日變化特征。0~24 h預報的平均溫度和實況基本一致，預報的擊中率為0.73；預報的平均相對濕度較實況偏高了0.3%，擊中率為0.74；模式預報的風場跟實況較為吻合，對風速增大、減小的趨勢預報非常準確。另外，模式對層云降水預報較好，能很好的把握了降水的強度及空間變化，但對積云強降水預報，結(jié)果不理想，降水范圍、強度均偏小，持續(xù)時間偏短。

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In this paper, the latest version of WRFv3.1 was used to predict the weather condition in high resolution for Nanjing, and the predicted results were compared with the observations in detail. The results showed that the model successfully predicted the characteristic of the daytoday variations of temperature, relative humidity and winds. The mean temperatures of 0-24 h prediction were very close with the observations, with hit rate of 0.73; the predicted relative humidity were slightly higher than the observations, with relative error of 0.3% and hit rate of 0.74; the model also quite well displayed the wind fields, fairly captured the variation trends of wind speeds In addition, the model has good performances in forecasting the stratus precipitation; both intensity and pattern of precipitation were well captured However, it is somewhat not satisfactory to forecast cumulus heavy precipitation, compared with the real one, the range was smaller; the intensity was lower; and the durative time was shorter.

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周鵬,常蘭,李鵬,徐強君,張成偉. WRF模式在南京數(shù)值天氣預報中的應(yīng)用.氣象科學,2011,(5):598-603 ZHOU Peng, CHANG Lan, LI Peng, XU Qiangjun, ZHANG Chengwei. The application of WRF model in the weather forecast of Nanjing. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2011,(5):598-603

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收稿日期:2010-08-07
最后修改日期:2010-11-06
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在線發(fā)布日期: 2012-05-16
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